Every once in a while, a headline comes along that feels like a punch to the gut for anyone involved in real estate — whether you’re buying, selling, or helping others do both. Last week’s front-page feature in The Wall Street Journal, amplified by Redfin’s data team, was one of those moments

“Half a Million More Sellers Than Buyers”

It’s a powerful headline. But here’s the thing: it’s also profoundly misleading.

Let’s unpack where this number comes from — and more importantly, why it’s wrong.

Redfin’s chart claimed there were 1.943 million active sellers in April 2025.

That’s a big number, and it instantly raised red flags. Why?

Because no other credible source reports anything close to it.

Here’s what actual market data shows:

• Realtor.com: 959,000 active listings (data pulled from the MLS)
• National Association of Realtors: 1.45 million existing homes listed — but about 400,000 of those are already under contract
• New Construction Homes: 504,000 new builds, but only 117,000 are completed and available, according to Census Bureau Housing Completion Data 

Even adding everything together (and not double-counting), the real number of available homes is dramatically lower than Redfin’s claim.

So where did they get this number?

Apparently… they made their own math.

Redfin also attempted to estimate the number of buyers — something that can’t truly be measured — using a custom ratio based on how long it takes the “typical” buyer to go from a tour to a purchase. That’s like guessing how many people are interested in getting married by looking at how many people booked a florist this month.

This is not data — this is modeling with questionable assumptions.

The most dangerous thing about fear-driven media? It stops people from making decisions that could change their lives — like buying their first home, investing in real estate, or helping their children secure financial stability.

Here’s what the top 150 economists in the U.S. actually project for home values:

• 2025: +3.4% appreciation (that’s $17,000 on a $500,000 home)
• Next 5 Years Cumulative: +19% ($95,000 gain on that same home)

These aren’t numbers driven by guesswork — they’re grounded in economic modeling, historical performance, and actual supply-demand dynamics.

Now, here’s where things get really interesting…

The same Redfin economist who helped create the now-viral “500,000 seller gap” chart — Chen Zhao — is forecasting only a 1% drop in home prices in 2025, followed by flat or modest gains in the years ahead.

Let that sink in: If she actually believed her own numbers, wouldn’t the forecast be far worse than that?

Even amidst rising rates, media noise, and clickbait headlines — real estate remains one of the most powerful tools for building long-term wealth.

Let’s not forget: In every economic cycle, the best opportunities are seized by those who look past fear and focus on fundamentals.

Whether you’re an agent, buyer, or seller, here’s your action plan:

1. Don’t take headlines at face value. Headlines are designed to get clicks — not build legacies.
2. Focus on long-term fundamentals. The data overwhelmingly supports home appreciation and wealth creation over time.
3. Educate your network. Share this article, talk to your clients, and keep the conversation grounded in facts.
4. Make decisions based on YOUR goals. Not on market noise or media speculation.

Homeownership is more than a transaction — it’s a foundation for wealth, stability, and freedom. Don’t let fear steal what could be your greatest opportunity. If you’re looking to buy, sell, or just need a voice of reason in the chaos, reach out. Let’s make moves based on truth — not headlines.

Feel free to share this blog with your network to help spread awareness, push back on the fear narrative, and empower more families to build generational wealth through real estate.

This message is written by Joe LaGiglia of Oak Leaf Community Mortgage, NMLS #703971. Equal Housing Lender. Member FDIC.

Our expert voice, Joe LaGiglia, operates in Downtown Plainfield as a Senior Mortgage Loan Originator at Oak Leaf Community Mortgage, powered by North Shore Trust and Savings (NMLS #438265). With a nationwide license, Joe’s expertise is vast and invaluable. To delve deeper or to engage directly with Joe, visit his bio page here or call or text at 630-936-3242 (NMLS #703971).